Agrometrics in charts: the glut of avocados in the US market is expected to last at least until mid-2023

Agrometrics in charts: the glut of avocados in the US market is expected to last at least until mid-2023

In this episode of the “Agronometrics In Charts” series, Sarah Ilyas studies the evolution of the Mexican avocado season. Each week the series examines a different horticultural product, focusing on a specific origin or topic, visualizing the market factors driving change.


The US avocado market is dominated by Hass avocados from Mexico, which represent 92% of supply. A much smaller percentage of avocados come from Peru and from farms in California and Florida. “Most of the time, avocado crops alternate yield from year to year. So a big harvest one year is followed by a smaller harvest the next year,” says David Magana, Senior Fresh Produce Analyst at Rabo AgriFinancea.

Occasionally, as is the case this year, farmers have back-to-back high yielding seasons. “Much of the avocado oversupply ended up in the United States,” Magana adds, referring to the current season. 74 packing plants and more than 30,000 avocado growers are currently engaged in cross-border trade in Mexico.

“Jalisco is a new growing region and adds volume to the United States”, says Peter ShoreVice President of Product Management for Calavo, adding that this change will make a big difference for Mexican avocados in the future. Many see the agreement’s integration of 695 orchards, 9,441 hectares, 11 packing plants and 10 municipalities into Jalisco as beneficial to the entire sector.


Source: USDA Market News via Agrometry. (Agronometrics users can view this graph with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agrometry. (Agronometrics users can view this graph with live updates here)

The microclimate, volcanic soil and regular rainfall of Michoacán, according Alvaro LuquePresident and CEO of Avocados From Mexico, “allow avocado trees to bloom all year roundmaking it the only region to ship Hass avocados to the United States 365 days a year. Avocado production has increased significantly and the annual supply now exceeds 2 billion pounds.

He goes on to point out that imports of Mexican avocados have increased significantly in recent years. “In just seven years, we have doubled the volume of Mexican avocado imports, from 1.2 billion pounds in 2014 to 2.4 billion pounds in 2021,” he adds.

This increase was fueled by a dramatic growth in US demand for avocados and an equally dramatic growth in the US import economy. In addition, according to Luque, the demand has been mainly fueled by a shift in consumer preferences towards more ethnic and health-promoting foods in diets, an increase in the use of avocados by restaurants, a better understanding of nutritional benefits of avocados and marketing. campaigns like Avocados from Mexico.

“As Mexican avocado imports travel through the food supply chain, they contribute $6.5 billion in economic output and $4 billion in GDP to the U.S. economy,” says Shore.

With the overall cost of groceries up surprisingly 13% compared to last year, avocado prices are falling. This season, avocados from Mexico are abundant. In fact, there is an oversupply, which has led to a substantial drop in prices. “The demand for avocados is certainly not diminishing, the Super Bowl is the biggest avocado eating event, but we certainly see many other eating opportunities for it.” says Richard KottmeyerManaging Director of Food, Agriculture and Beverage at FTI Consulting.


Source: USDA Market News via Agrometry. (Agronometrics users can view this graph with live updates here)

In our “In Charts” series, we strive to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Do not hesitate to take a look at the other articles of click here.

All US domestic product prices represent spot market at point of shipment (ie packhouse/air-conditioned warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, price data represents the spot market at the point of entry.

You can follow the markets daily with Agronometrics, a data visualization tool designed to help the industry make sense of the massive amounts of data professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and graphics in this article helpful, please feel free to visit us at www.agrometrics.com where you can easily access those same charts or explore the other 21 products we are currently tracking.

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