How low can the Bitcoin price go?

How low can the Bitcoin price go?

Bitcoin (BTC) has spent more than a year in a downtrend since its all-time highs of $69,000 in November 2021.

BTC’s price performance has given investors up to 77% losses, but how low can BTC/USD really go?

Bitcoin traders and analysts have long agreed that 2022 is the year of the biggest cryptocurrency’s most recent bear market.

After hitting all-time highs to start the year at around $46,000, BTC/USD offered little relief and has since returned to levels not seen since November 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirm.

This placed the pair at the historic low of the bear market – having lost a maximum of around 77% since the last peak, Bitcoin may have little room to fall.

This time, however, may be different. Cointelegraph takes a look at what some of the most popular crypto market commentators think when it comes to where Bitcoin will bottom.

CryptoBullet: “Comfortable buy” around $16,000

A well-known social media personality is sticking to a theory from early 2022 – and it’s a particular metric on the channel.

For CryptoBullet, Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) still offers key insight into BTC macro price lows.

CVDD basically counts the number of hodled days a coin has accumulated when it moves to a new wallet. It is expressed as a ratio of the overall market age divided by 6 million, which according to analytics resource Woobull is a “calibration factor”.

Looking back over time, CVDD has acted as an important line in the sand, and if this time is no different, BTC/USD might already be giving buyers the best possible profit opportunity.

According to Woobull, CVDD currently sits at around $15,900.

“I feel comfortable buying Bitcoin here at CVDD,” CryptoBullet Told Followers on Twitter on November 26.

“Can it go any lower? Of course it is possible. If another crypto company goes bankrupt or something like that, $BTC will fall below CVDD, but not by much. Most of the downtrend is over.

Annotated Bitcoin Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) chart. Source: CryptoBullet/Twitter

Filbfilb: $6,500 as “worst case scenario”

A crypto market veteran is constantly reassessing how hard the bears can bite this time around.

Filbfilb, co-founder of the Decentrader trading suite, recently told Cointelegraph that BTC/USD could see $10,000 around the new year if macro conditions worsen.

That was before the FTX debacle, however, and the resulting fuel added to the fire of the bear market caused him to reconsider.

In a livestream with its co-founder, Philip Swift, Filbfilb described areas of strong bid support as potential funds.

These vary however – a large “ladder” of offers sits just below the spot price and focuses on $12,000-14,000. At the same time, the ultimate support could go down to $6,000.

Filbfilb also noted that a black swan event such as further crypto bankruptcies could trigger a spike in the upper support field, opening up the potential for $10,000 or lower next.

A trip to the $6,000 zone is “unlikely” under current circumstances, however, he advised.

BTC/USD 1 week candle chart (Bitstamp) with liquidity heatmap data. Source: Trading View

Lots of eyes on the $14,000 prize

The upper support bracket of Filbfilb’s bids on the stock market order books is a popular target for a growing number of commentators.

Related: Will Bitcoin hit $110,000 in 2023? 3 reasons to be bullish on BTC now

As Cointelegraph reported, $14,000 is now a big spot on the radar, and entries around there are already expected.

This zone would also result in BTC/USD losses from all-time highs consistent with previous bear markets.

Chart of BTC/USD declines from all-time highs. Source: Glassnode

Not only that, but $13,900 is an important support line on the weekly time frames, notes trader and analyst Rekt Capital, a line that hasn’t been tested since the second half of 2020.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.