- Chinese stocks skid as Beijing coronavirus cases rise
- Dollar and bonds firm ahead of Fed minutes
- Oil prices fall again after losing 10% last week
SYDNEY, Nov 21 (Reuters) – Asian stock markets and oil prices fell on Monday as investors worried about the economic fallout from new COVID-19 restrictions in China, with resulting risk aversion benefiting investors. bonds and dollars.
Beijing’s most populous district urged residents to stay home on Monday as the number of COVID cases in the city rose, while at least one district in Guangzhou was locked down for five days. read more read more
The eruption of outbreaks across the country has been a setback to hopes for a quick easing of tough pandemic restrictions, one of the reasons cited for a 10% drop in oil prices last week.
China’s blue chips (.CSI300) fell 1.3% in early trading, dragging the broadest index of non-Japan Asia-Pacific stocks (.MIAPJ0000PUS) down 1.4%. The Japanese Nikkei (.N225) was flat and South Korea (.KS11) lost 1.2%.
S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures slipped 0.2%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures lost 0.4% and FTSE futures 0.2%.
The Thanksgiving holiday in the US on Thursday, combined with the distraction of the FIFA World Cup, could lead to weak trading, while Black Friday sales will offer a glimpse of the situation for consumers and the outlook for retail stocks. .
Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest meeting are due on Wednesday and could appear hawkish, judging by how officials have pushed back on market easing in recent days.
Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Raphael Bostic said on Saturday he was ready to return to a half-point hike in December, but also stressed that rates were likely to stay high longer than previously forecast. the steps. Read more
Futures contracts imply an 80% chance of a 50 basis point rise to 4.25-4.5% and a peak for rates around 5.0-5.25%. They also planned rate cuts for the end of next year.
“We believe the ongoing deceleration in US inflation and European growth is producing a moderation in the pace of tightening from next month,” said Bruce Kasman, head of research at JPMorgan.
“But for central banks to pause, they also need clear evidence that labor markets are easing,” he added. “Latest reports from the US, eurozone and UK point to only limited moderation in labor demand, while wage information points to sustained pressures.”
Central banks in Sweden and New Zealand are expected to raise rates this week, possibly by 75 basis points.
There are at least four Fed officials due to speak this week, a teaser ahead of a speech by Chairman Jerome Powell on Nov. 30 that will set the outlook for rates at the December policy meeting.
PRICE FOR THE RECESSION
Bond markets clearly think the Fed will tighten too much and tip the economy into recession, as the yield curve is the most inverted it has been in 40 years.
Yields on 10-year bonds fell to 3.79%, leaving them 72 basis points below two-year bonds.
The Fed’s chorus helped the dollar stabilize after its recent strong sell-off, although speculative positioning in futures turned sharply short on the currency for the first time since mid-2021. Read more
On Monday, the dollar was little changed at 140.36 yen, following last week’s rebound from a low of 137.67. The euro eased 0.2% to $1.0298, well below the recent four-month high of $1.1481.
The US dollar index strengthened 0.25% to 107.180, off last week’s low at 105.300.
“Given the extent of the fall in US bond yields and the dollar over the past two weeks, we think there is a good chance that they will rebound if the Fed minutes are consistent with recent hawkish language. members,” said Jonas Goltermann, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics.
Meanwhile, the turmoil in cryptocurrencies has continued unabated with exchange FTX filing for protection in US bankruptcy court, saying it owes its 50 largest creditors nearly of $3.1 billion. Read more
In commodity markets, gold was slightly lower at $1,747 an ounce, after falling 1.2% last week.
Oil futures failed to find a bottom after last week’s beatings saw Brent lose 9% and WTI around 10%.
Brent fell another 98 cents to $86.64, while U.S. crude for January fell 90 cents to $79.18 a barrel.
Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell
Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
#Asian #stocks #oil #prices #skid #China #COVID #outbreaks