NBA Betting Market Report: Daily Picks, Friday 11/11 Tips

NBA Betting Market Report: Daily Picks, Friday 11/11 Tips

Welcome to the daily NBA Betting Market Report, your source for analysis of the day’s betting lines in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day, follow me on Twitter and be sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

Friday, November 11 Market Report

* Indicates that the team is on the second leg of a consecutive match

**Lines are opening numbers

Best bets

File: 15-16 | Units: -1.81 | ROI: -6.12%

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors (-3, 230)

The Warriors haven’t covered a game Steph Curry has played since Oct. 27, when they played the Heat at home and covered as 8-point favorites. It would seem reckless to chase that ghost again with Golden State, but there’s a different angle to attack that starting tonight against Cleveland. The Warriors clearly have issues with their bench, and that led to some of these poor performances. When Curry leaves the floor, they are at -20.1 per 100 possessions with an offensive rating of 99.2, compared to +8.1 per 100 possessions and an offensive rating of 121.4. Steve Kerr usually plays Curry the first 10 minutes of the first quarter, so instead of trusting this team for an entire game, I’ll be looking to bet them when their optimal lineup is on the floor. Cleveland is showing some sluggishness on this road trip, dropping its last two games and allowing 1,255 points per possession. Let’s work up a sweat tonight and bet on Golden State’s starters to do what they do.

Play: Warriors 1Q (-0.5)

Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics (-5, 233.5)

Both teams have been wildly inconsistent, and that’s down to their lackluster defensive efforts to start the season. Boston enters this game 21st in non-garbage defensive efficiency, allowing 113.5 points per 100 possessions. Denver is 23rd and allows 113.6 per 100 possessions. Both teams also rank in the top four in garbage-free offensive efficiency, so one would assume a high-scoring affair tonight, but that number was bet at 230.5 consensus. The team has also been bet, but not as much as the consensus line is Celtics -4.5 and is likely down to Malcolm Brogdon’s injury which will keep him out tonight. As for the bet, let’s go with a player prop and hit the rebound prop for Nikola Jokic. It’s high at 11.5 but the Over is +100 and it’s a bad game for Boston. The Celtics are 20th in overall rebound rate due to their lack of bottom size. They’ve struggled to keep the real bigs out of the glass, and Jokic fits that bill well. It will be a half-unit game on Over 11.5 rebounds tonight.

Play: Jokic OV 11.5 REB (+100) for 0.5u

Summary of the best bets

Warriors 1Q (-0.5)

Jokic OV 11.5 REB (+100) for 0.5u

The rest

Toronto Raptors (-4.5, 221) at Oklahoma City Thunder

Toronto’s frontcourt received another blow when they lost Precious Achiuwa indefinitely to an ankle injury. Now both Achiuwa and Pascal Siakam, this team is becoming a forward thing, much like it was last season. Oklahoma City might be in line to take advantage here, but the betting market doesn’t seem to care about Raptors injuries as we’re looking at -5.5 in favor of the road team at multiple outlets. I’d be inclined to look to the Thunder side here tonight, but Darius Bazley’s injury is significant. He is one of Oklahoma City’s best defensemen, improving his defensive rating by 11.7 points per 100 possessions when on the ground. Then there’s the matter of the team’s -15.3 net rating and 99.1 points per 100 possessions scored without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the ground. Interesting note to watch tonight for in-play bettors: the Thunder have the third-best third-quarter net odds this season (+13.6). Perhaps a third quarter bet, depending on the scenario, may be in play tonight.

Phoenix Suns (-7, 214) at Orlando Magic

Phoenix didn’t need Chris Paul on Wednesday when they beat Minnesota, and now they’re getting a favorable game against Orlando who could be without Paolo Banchero again due to injury. Paul is questionable once again tonight, as is Paolo Banchero, so there is too much potential volatility with this number to get involved from a preflop perspective. For those reading, I want to start tracking point totals for Banchero going forward, especially against teams with defenders like Mikal Bridges who can take him on. The Magic faced weak defensive teams to start the season, but as that progresses and Banchero is more of a focal point of opposing defenses, it would follow as its score drops, and that will be something to jump on with. his inflated point totals when offered.

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks (-7, 224.5)

Over the past eight games, New York has allowed 114.4 points per 100 possessions, leading to a -7.7 net rating. Tom Thibodeau is tinkering with the starting lineup, so the team is 2-6 ATS in those eight games. They covered against Detroit with a similar number on Oct. 21, but at this point the Knickerbockers can’t be considered a heavy favorite. Cade Cunningham is doubtful to play, but once he’s confirmed active, the Pistons will likely be an addition for me tonight.

Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs (-1.5, 222)

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday are unavailable tonight, which is why we see this jarring number from San Antonio as a favorite over the Bucks. It may seem like Milwaukee is fading here, but the team is just -0.8 per 100 possessions without Antetokounmpo and Holiday on the floor this season, and their offensive rating of 114.5 in those possessions is higher than the average. It wouldn’t be shocking to see this team pick up some offensive success against the 29th-ranked defense that allowed 118.2 points per 100 possessions in non-waste time.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5, 236.5)

Minnesota is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games with a -6.6 net rating and fails to play basketball adequately at both ends of the court. They’re not the most attractive side at this point, but the market is moving in their direction, pushing that number down to the Grizzlies -4.5 consensus. Memphis has been hit or miss himself, and goes into this game 2-4-1 ATS in its last seven games. The market has clearly been too strong for both teams, but something has to give tonight.

Sacramento Kings (-1, 226) at Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron James is out and the betting market is all over Sacramento, pushing that number up to -4 consensus as of this morning. Los Angeles is -10.6 per 100 possessions with a 119.9 defensive rating without James on the ground, but the Kings are allowing 116.4 points per 100 possessions defensively. The market may be moving too fast on this one, and a Lakers team led by Russell Westbrook could prove somewhat formidable tonight. Unsurprisingly, this total rises to 229.5 consensus.

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